Pack Analysis 18Oct2012

So, one of the most important skills in Magic is card evaluation. Whether it is going over iterative brews of a constructed deck, or looking at a pack in limited, you need to be able to tell if a card is worth going in your deck. So, in an effort do work on analysis and maybe generate some discussion, here's the breakdown in a pack I purchased:

Commons:
Annihilating Fire
Armory Guard
Coursers' Accord
Dead Reveler
Deviant Glee
Dispel
Golgari Guildgate
Selesnya Guildgate
Stealer of Secrets
Trestle Troll

Uncommons:
Dryad Militant
Goblin Rally
Thoughtflare

Rare:
Carnival Hellsteed

First off, let's look at this as pack 1 pick 1 in a draft.  Several cards jump out at me right off the bat: the 2 Guildgates, the Hellsteed, Trestle Troll, Thoughtflare and the Annihilating Fire. Mana fixing is always a good thing, especially in Gold focused blocks like RTR will be. Trestle Troll is a sold blocker that does work. Reach,  Regenerate, and a good back end are very important in a format with beefy flyers like Chaos Imps. Thoughtflare is looting on steroids, and everybody loves looting. Carnival Hellsteed is an amazing card even when you don't unleash it. It won't lose in creature combat and a minimum toughness of four puts it out of the reach of a lot of removal in the set. Removal like Annihilating Fire. I played Incinerate for 1R, I'll still play Incinerate at 1RR. All the other cards in the pack are too narrow (Dispel), Outclassed by other cards (Dead Reveler, Coursers' Accord, Goblin Rally, and Armory Guard), risky to play or jump through hoops to make work (Deviant Glee and Stealer of Secrets), or don't really impact the game (Dryad Militant)


All that being said, the two cards that it really comes down to for first pick are Carnival Hellsteed and Annihilating Fire. First picks you're going to want a card that has impact on the board unless that card effectively says "You win the game". Mana fixing, while important, will be around in the next few picks and you can grab something if there is nothing supporting your colors. Thoughtflare is another great card, but doesn't impact the board or directly win you the game. Trestle Troll is a great card when you're behind because it helps you stabilize, but doesn't help you move forward after that. Carnival Hellsteed does both.

So, it then comes down to those two. Dude or Spell. Carnival Hellsteed fits nicely into the "bomb" category of creatures. Powerful, efficient, and can take over a game. The only way you're dealing with this particular bomb is with a removal spell. Arrest, Detention Sphere, Paralyzing Grasp, Auger Spree (if it's not unleashed) and Dreadbore. All of these stop this card with minimal hoops to jump through (Tapped, not unleashed, etc.). One card not in that list? Annihilating Fire. 3 damage doesn't crack it's normal toughness and in order to kill it, you're going to need to throw enough bodies in front of it to put 6-7 toughness in its way just to get that 1-2 damage through to kill it. By all means, 4 for 1 yourself.

Pack 1 Pick 1: Carnival Hellstead.

Now, looking at this pack as a pack in my sealed pool makes me very excited about Rakdos or Jund. I've got the Hellsteed, Annihilating Fire, Deviant Glee, and Dead Reveler for a straight up Rakdos deck. (Yeah, Deviant Glee is a big pointer for "Please 2 for one me" but it is nice with the deathtouch we see in other cards). And then I've got Trestle Troll and Golgari Guildgate for splashing green.

I'll try and do one of these a week, and keep a running tally of the cards and every six packs, I'll try and build a sealed deck out of the pool.