Pack Analysis 25Oct2012

Hi and welcome back!

Today I'll be reviewing the second pack in this first volume of pack analysis, and if I can find the time, reviewing my sealed deck building from last Friday's FNM. Here's what the randomness of the universe (and WOTC'S collation algorithm) gave us this week:

Commons
Axebane Guardian
Catacomb Slug
Concordia Pegasus
Doorkeeper
Downsize
Essence Backlash
Eyes in the Skies
Hussar Patrol
Rakdos Guildgate
Survey the Wreckage



 Uncommons
Azorius Charm
Izzet Charm
Phantom General

Rare
Volatile Rig


Yikes. So, unlike last week there's no card that leaps at and screams PICK ME PICK ME! Volatile Rig lives up to its name and is nowhere near the consistency that I like in my draft decks. Catacomb Slug has a great back end, but a vanilla creature for 5 will make it's way to you again (and still will probably get passed). By the time you're able to cast Survey the Wreckage, they've probably already gotten their use out of that land. 4 mana counterspells aren't fun to play. 4 mana counterspells that only target a specific type of card aren't fun to play. 4 mana counterspells that need 2 types of mana aren't fun to play. I believe I've made my point on Essence Backlash.

All that being said, we still have plenty of options for our first pick. Downsize and Doorkeeper are fine for keeping you alive, and Doorkeeper adds an alternate win condition.

Concordia Pegasus holds off early Rakdos drops and has evasion. Phantom General is almost a fair Intangible Virtue, all be it more fragile. And flashing in 2 blockers, or end of turn Eyes in the Skies is a great way to catch the opponent unaware.

Axebane Guardian is a great card. Splashable for acceleration. Fixes your mana. Blocks all day long. Doesn't help you get back when you're behind though.

Rakdos Guildgate lets you fix your mana or enable a splash.

Azorius Charm impacts board tempo at it's best, and at it's worst it just cantrips (which is still pretty good for white).  Remember what I said about flashing in a blocker? Hussar Patrol does that with the same combined power, twice the toughness and trades in Vigilance for Flying.

Izzet Charm is a workhorse. It is a situational counter (for half of Backlash's cost), it lets you double loot, or it's a removal spell.

From all these, I narrowed it down to Izzet Charm, Eyes in the Skies, and Axebane Guardian. The Azorius cards aren't as strong, and Eyes in the Skies lets me copy whatever, the bird token, a centaur, a knight, so I like that flexibility over the Hussar Patrol. Concordia Pegasus is great for the early attackers, but soon gets outclassed. Removal is worse in this set than most, but being a monocolored flyer opens it up to more hurt and a greater chance for a 2 for 1. The General needs the tokens for his ability to be relevant, otherwise he's a worse Hill Giant. Downsize just keeps you alive, not win, and Doorkeeper has a non zero chance of tabling. The Guildgate is another fine card, but not first pickable. Not with the other three cards in the pack.

So, I tanked on this pick for quite some time, and my pick is Axebane Guardian. All three of these cards are first pickable in a pack like this, so I had to look at the pack as a whole to make my call. There are 6 cards with blue in the casting cost, 5 for white, 3 Red, 1 Colorless, 1 Black, 1 Land and 1 Green. Taking the good green card in the pack helps make sure the player to the left doesn't go green and makes it more likely I'll see good green in pack 2.

Now, for a sealed pool, this pack makes me a sad panda. My cards are all over the place and some fixing. Combining it with the pack from last week, the Guardian and Guildgate make me lean even more towards a Jund build, but we'll see where packs 3-6 take me.

Cheers!